The Dynamic Impacts of the Global Shipping Market under the Background of Oil Price Fluctuations and Emergencies

With growing uncertainty about the evolution of global landscape, it is great practical significance to explore nonlinear dynamic adjustment relationship among world oil market, bulk shipping stock and economic growth in China. This paper applied TVP-SV-VAR model selected quarterly data from 1998 2020 dynamics. The results indicated that impact intensity BDI on China’s economy had a “positive” “negative” change different lag periods. was mainly due fact negative higher freight prices outweighed positive trade volumes economy. GDP distinct medium- long-term effect. A shock dampening effect short medium term, while could promote market prosperity perspective. impulse responses SSE showed external shocks gradually became smaller over time. For response at three time points, varied with largest during financial crisis 2008, followed by price crash 2014, smallest COVID-19 epidemic. demonstrated market’s influence Chinese has weakened time, illustrating enhancement risk-resilience capacity.